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The PGA Tour will return to Scottsdale, Arizona for this year’s Waste Management Phoenix Open. 22 of the top 25 ranked players in the world will gather on the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale to compete for the $20,000,000 purse. With the newly implemented PGA Tour changes, Scottsdale will be home to the first full field elevated event on the schedule. The 2022 event saw Scottie Scheffler defeat Patrick Cantlay in a playoff, and both players return to this year’s field. Scheffler looks to defend his title at +1300 while Cantlay sits at +2100 to rack up his first victory of the ’22-’23 season. Other top contenders by listed odds are Jon Rahm (+700), Rory McIlroy (+800), Xander Schauffele (+1400) and Colin Morikawa (+1600).
Outright Winners
Scottie Scheffler (+1300) – A little less than a year ago, we would have killed for a 13-1 price on Scheffler. Combine a good price with the obvious success at TPC Scottsdale (won last year, T7th in 2021) and his consistency to start the year and you get a “no-brainer”. Hasn’t finished outside T11th since October.
Patrick Cantlay (+2100) – As mentioned previously, Cantlay lost this event last season in a playoff that ultimately sparked the historic run Scheffler had. He’s due for a win & the Stadium Course fits him well. Hasn’t been super active this season but fell just short of a victory at Shriners. Cantlay loves the stronger fields and I’m confident he’ll win more than once this season.
Tom Kim (+2800) – Aside from a strange missed cut in Hawaii, the 20 year old has lived up to the hype he set for himself at the end of last season. He won in Vegas back in October and has racked up T11, T10, T6 and T5 finishes since then. It’s no secret that Tom Kim loves the big stages. Way too good of a price for way too good of a player.
Sahith Theegala (+5500) – Speaking of “loving the big stage”, in a professional sense, this event was Theegala’s “coming out party” last season. Theegala held the 36 hole lead by 2 strokes in a stacked field before ultimately finishing up T3rd. It was a glimpse into a phenomenal rookie campaign from Sahith. He’s one of the best and most consistent players on Tour without a victory. With a bit more experience on the weekend, if Sahith can get out to the same hot start he had in 2022, there’s a better chance he’s able to finish the job.
Finishing Positions
Top 5 Finishes
Xander Schauffele (+240) – Aside from maybe Jon Rahm, there aren’t many players you can argue have had more success here than Xander. He followed up his T2 finish from 2021 with a T3 finish last year. Add 3 more Top 20’s since 2018 and it’s hard to point out another player with a better resume here. Two Top 5’s this season.
Max Homa (+550) – The outright price on Max isn’t ideal due to his recent success. If it wasn’t for Rahm and Rory’s recent dominance, Homa would be the hottest golfer in the world. There’s still value here though as Homa has also had tons of success at TPC Scottsdale. T14th last year and was able to secure a T6 in 2020.
Tom Kim (+550) – The success this year was laid out in the outright section, so there isn’t much to say here. On an absolute tear this season. Max play.
Top 10 Finishes
Justin Thomas (+240) – When I said there is not many players you could argue have a better track record at TPC Scottsdale than Xander aside from Rahm, there may only be one more. JT. Since 2018, Thomas has had two Top 5 finishes and two Top 20 finishes, as well as a T8th finish last year. Hasn’t won since the 2022 PGA Championship. Should be in contention throughout the weekend.
Sungjae Im (+250) – Sungjae didn’t play in this tournament last season, but he’s another guy with a good performance history at TPC Scottsdale. T17th in 2021 and T7th in 2019. Coming off a solid performance at Farmers with a Top 5 finish.
Top 20 Finishes
Hideki Matsuyama (+125) – Hideki looks like he may be getting back to his old form. Looked great over the weekend in San Diego two weeks ago and secured a T8 finish at last year’s Phoenix Open. Plus money on Hideki to place inside the Top 20 is never a bad bet.
Rickie Fowler (+240) – Rickie isn’t quite back to his peak in terms of results, but he’s as close as he’s been for a long time. T6, T2 and T11 finishes under his belt so far this season. Hasn’t had success here in the last two starts, but did win the event back in 2019. Banking on the recent changes to his game being a thing of consistency.
J.T. Poston (+310) – T6 finish in his last start at Amex, and has a T11 finish at the Phoenix Open back in 2021. One of the most consistent players on the greens. If he can give himself opportunities this week, should have no problem capitalizing.
