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The PGA Tour will return to Pebble Beach, California for the 2023 edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The event will host its normal slate of tour professionals, while combining an amateur team aspect to the event with a star studded list of celebrities. Not much changes for betting (other than accounting for longer rounds and mid-high handicappers slapping tee shots into the ocean), but the event will be played among 3 courses: the famous Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill GC and the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula CC. All players get a run at each track before the 54 hole cut after Saturday’s round. This years field welcomes back defending champion Tom Hoge (+1900) who was able to hold off 2017 champion Jordan Spieth (+1100). Other top contenders by listed odds are Matt Fitzpatrick (+1100), Viktor Hovland (+1100) and Maverick Mcnealy (+1700).
Outright Winners
Viktor Hovland (+1100) – Pebble Beach is known for its tiny targets as its green sizes are among the smallest on the PGA Tour calendar. Ball-striking and precision from the fairways is so important, and who better than Viktor Hovland? Finished outside the Top 30 in his only appearance back in 2020, but Hovland isn’t the same player he was 3 years ago. Coming off a Top 20 finish at TOC and a win back in December at the Hero World Challenge, Hovland should be the clear front runner this weekend.
Tom Hoge (+1900) – Hoge was excellent last year in this event as he held off Jordan Spieth by two strokes to win. Since then, he’s certainly taken a leap as we’ve seen him compete in the strongest fields. Didn’t have his best stuff in his last two starts, but coming back to winning territory should get Hoge comfortable again.
Erik Van Rooyen (+7500) – I’d be telling an atrocius lie if I said I had a bunch of data and statistics to back this one up. Van Rooyen was superb back at the AmEx event with a T6 finish. Hasn’t been super active lately, but if the AmEx performance was any indicator of where his game is at, 75-1 is too good of a price.
Finishing Positions
Top 5 Finishes
Matt Fitzpatrick (+240) – Despite not liking the price on Fitzy outright, there certainly is a chance he wins this tournament. The 2022 US Open Champion should be in the running regardless, so Top 5 is a good play.
Viktor Hovland (+280) – It’s a rare move for me to take two of the top 3 favorites to finish inside the Top 5, but I don’t see a scenario where Hovland isn’t in the hunt on Sunday.
Top 10 Finishes
Jordan Spieth (+115) – There is no question that of all the players in the field Spieth certainly has the best resume at Pebble Beach. 2nd, 3rd and 9th place finishes in his last 3 showings at Pebble, including a win in 2017. Not a jaw dropping price but history is on our side.
Tom Hoge (+190) – I made the mistake of taking the ladder on finishing position tickets with Hoge a few weeks ago in Hawaii. He finished outside the Top 20 & cost me a few bucks but I’m doing it again. Hoge is a great iron player and doesn’t miss a ton of greens. I think Top 10 should be no problem.
Beau Hossler (+500) – Well I’ve mentioned once or twice that Hoge beat Spieth last year… but Beau Hossler came in solo 3rd with one of his best performances in his young PGA Tour career. There isn’t 5 guys you could name on Tour that roll the ball better than Hossler on the greens. If he can stick around through 54 holes, his putting and success at Pebble should give him the confidence to crack the Top 10.
Top 20 Finishes
Davis Riley (+230) – One of the Rookie of the Year candidates from 2021-2022, Riley has been far off from his best stuff so far this season. His only Top 20 finish came back in October at Sanderson Farms. This is a good price in a “not-so-stacked field”. For a guy who’s had early success early on, I think Riley will find his groove sooner than later.
Nick Taylor (+230) – Won the event in 2020 and finished T14 last year. No reason Taylor can’t hang around long enough to find a way into the Top 20.
Harry Higgs (+550) – I feel like Harry Higgs is so close to securing a handful of Top 20’s and maybe even Top 10 finishes. Was tied for the lead through 36 holes at RSM, shot a 3rd round 62 at American Express where he did secure a Top 20 finish and an opening round 66 last week before a 2nd round meltdown. A little bit of consistency away from taking a leap into another tier of players.
