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| GAME | TIME (EST) | FAVORITE | TOTAL | PICKS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ CLE | 1:00pm | TB -3 | 42 | TB -3 u42 |
| BAL @ JAX | 1:00pm | BAL -3.5 | 43 | BAL -3.5 o43 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) @ Cleveland Browns (3-7)
Injury Watch (Impact Players)
Out: RB Leonard Fournette (TB), CB Greg Newsome (CLE)
Game Preview: The line on this one is tighter than I would have expected, and that can really be said of both games that are featured in this post. Brady and the Bucs roll into town looking arguably the best they have all year, with a healthy receiving core and a dynamic rookie RB, Rachaad White, set to take over for the injured Leonard Fournette. The Browns defense has been middle of the pack against the pass, but struggled immensely against the run and been unable to produce turnovers (30th in interceptions, 28th in total turnovers). Cleveland will also be without their 2021 first round pick, CB Greg Newsome, which can’t help their chances of slowing down Tom Brady and Co.
Speaking of Tom Terrific, post-divorce Brady has looked like a new man. Since finalizing his split with Gisele, Tommy is 2-0 and coming off of one of his best games of the year against the Seahawks, posting a QBR of 86.0. Lock in the Bucs to cover and the under on the game, with the Browns offense likely staying shy of the 20 point mark.
PICKS: TB -3 & u42
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
Game Preview: Jacksonville’s one clear weakness on defense this year has been their inability to pressure and ultimately sack the opposing QB, which doesn’t bode well for their chances at slowing down Lamar Jackson. We all know he can wreak havoc on a defense with his improvisational skills outside of the pocket, but given time to go through his progressions, he’s also shown he can pick apart defenses and utilize his offensive weapons effectively. Jacksonville is a “good” 3-7 team, and I like the core they’ve built, but the Ravens are a real title contender this year. The spread seems suspiciously low, so I’m taking the Ravens at -3.5 with confidence. As much as I’d like to see a back-and-forth battle like the ones we get from Tom Brady and Patrick Maholmes, I think the defenses rule the day in Jacksonville and we see a lower scoring game, which is why I’ll also be taking the under at 43.
PICKS: BAL -3.5 & u43
