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|7:37pm||New York Yankees @ Houston Astros||Severino (NYY)|
|HOU F5 3-way (+104)|
New York Yankees (Severino) @ Houston Astros (Valdez)
HOU F5 3-way (+104)– The Yankees could use a little bit more offense tonight but Framber Valdez will not be an ideal matchup for them . As a team, the Yankees were 1st in the MLB in total home runs (254) but Valdez was 1st in ground ball % (66.5%) among qualified pitchers and 2nd in HR/9 (0.49). If the Yankees are able to elevate his bowling ball sinker or he hangs something offspeed that will be their best chance (obviously) because he also has the 13th worst home run/fly ball ratio in the league. If you hit it in the air, something went wrong for Framber. With that said, he had a great year and was a rock for the Astros in their rotation clearing 200 innings with a 2.82 ERA. Yankees starter Luis Severino missed time with injury for about 2 months after the All-Star break but has been solid in his four outings since he has been back. He gave up 3 ER over 5.2 innings against Cleveland last week and limiting walks will be important for him. Even though the Yankees are dangerous, I think Valdez has been the more consistent starter this year. The Astros are favored tonight at -143 ML but I like the value of the first five innings and I’m going with HOU F5 3-way at +104.