Steelers @ Bills: NFL Week 5 (1pm)

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    1:00pmBUF -14 (-112)45.5 (-112)BUF -14
    u45.5 (-109)

    Game Analysis & Picks
    Consider this case study:

    Team A:

    1. MVP candidate QB in his prime.

    2. 3-1 record to start the season.

    3. Decisive wins over the Rams, Titans and Ravens in 2022, two of which were on the road.

    4. Their offense ranks 3rd in yards per game, and 5th in points per game.

    5. Their defense ranks 1st in yards allowed per game, and 2nd in points allowed per game (read: they’re very good). 

    Team B: 

    1. Rookie QB making his first start with noted small hands.

    2. 1-3 record to start the season. 

    3. Losses to the Patriots, Browns and Jets, two of which were at home.

    4. Their offense ranks 30th in yards per game, and 24th in points per game.

    5. Their defense ranks 24th in yards allowed per game, and 15th in points allowed per game.

    The Bills are big favorites in Week 5 as they host the Steelers, and there’s not a lot of reason to go against the smart money in this game. Sure, maybe Kenny Pickett is the next Tom Brady and this game starts his magical run to greatness, but in all likelihood, he is in for a very tough day against an intimidating defense. Pickett will need to play a very safe game to avoid turnovers (after throwing 3 INTs in his debut coming in as relief for Mitch Trubisky) and will likely be chasing points for most of the game, rendering Najee Harris and the Steelers struggling run game mostly obsolete. This is one of those games where it pays not to get fancy and take the obvious play. 

    I’m looking for something very one-sided in this game, in the realm of 28-3 or 31-7, which puts us well in line to cover the spread for the Bills at -14 (-112). The money line won’t bring home much in this one, and I expect the Bills to get out to a lead and then run the Steelers into submission, so I’m also taking the under at 45.5 (-109). 

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