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| TIME (EST) | FAVORITE | TOTAL | PICKS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:20pm | TB -2 (-110) | 47 (-110) | TB -2 u47 |
Game Analysis & Picks
This is a rematch of Super Bowl LV when Tampa Bay dominated Kansas City 31-9 (KC was -3). Both teams enter Week 4 with a 2-1 record coming off of a loss; Tampa at home to Green Bay (14-12) and Kansas City at Indy (20-17). Neither one of these teams is playing anywhere near their potential right now, and are far from how they looked during their January 2021 Super Bowl run. These teams know that September & October football really doesn’t matter though, we all know they’ll be competing again for the Lombardi, but damn it’s hard to lay money on either right now.
The Bucs return their WR room with Mike Evans back from suspension along with Chris Godwin & Julio Jones expected back from injury. Brady hasn’t eclipsed 300 passing yards in a game yet and has just 3 passing TDs on the season, but this could be his turnaround with his full offense back. The Chiefs are middle of the pack (227 yards / 14th) in passing yards allowed but allowed 334 to Justin Herbert in Week 2. Kansas City has regressed each week since blowing out the Cardinals 44-21 in Week 1. Mahomes went 30-39 for 360 yards and 5 TDs and that was just a few weeks ago but he really struggled against the Colts last week who allow the 6th fewest total yards. Right above them are the Bucs allowing the 5th fewest.
That’s what I’m going with tonight, both offenses are elite and scary, but tie goes to the defense and the home team. Look for Tom Brady to handle business in primetime but sorry, no fireworks in this one, the under is also the play. I’m counting on both teams to focus on possession control and limiting mistakes — plus the non-analytical take is that we always get burned assuming the over is a guarantee between good teams playing night football. Tampa Bay -2 and Under 47.
