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|1:00pm||DET -2 (-108)||48.5 (-110)||WAS +2 (-113)|
Game Analysis & Picks
After 24 consecutive games of being the underdog, the Detroit Lions snap their streak this week being favored over the Washington Commanders- though I only saw a few positives for Detroit in Week 1. The Lions offense played well in the red zone by scoring 4 times on 4 plays. In addition, RB D’Andre Swift ran the ball 15 times for 144 yards and 1 TD. But after his incredible 9.6 yards per carry, Swift sat out from practice this week with an ankle injury. The Detroit offensive line is also hurting, literally, with LT Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnow also sitting out of practice this week. Despite having 3 consecutive 3-and-out drives in the first half, the Lions were able to pull off the backdoor cover with a TD late in the second half. On the Detroit defensive side, the Lions looked like the Lions. The #2 pick of the 2022 draft, Aidan Hutchinson, was still adjusting to the speed of the NFL and was completely absent from the stat sheet in week 1.
Washington pulled out the win over a mediocre but high-potential Jaguar defense. Multi-dimensional RB Antonio Gibson carried the ball 14 times for 58 yards and caught 7 passes for 72 yards. Having a player like Gibson could help offset some of the downside of an immobile QB like Carson Wentz. In week 1, Wentz threw 4 TDs, but combined them with a pair of back-to-back interceptions resulting in 10 points going the other way. This week Wentz should be able to take advantage of a very weak Lions defense. I’m looking for Wentz to take some extra time in the pocket and connect with potential ROTY candidate WR Jahan Dotson. In his NFL debut last week, Dotson caught 3 passes for 40 yards and 2 TDs. Though only targeted 5 times, Dotson will continue to make high impact plays for this offense. The hurdle this week will be the Commanders run defense, which gave up 6.8 yards per carry against the Eagles last week. But I just can’t pass up free points against Detroit. If the Commanders fall, I’m falling with them and taking Washington +2. For the over, given the Lions’ lack of defense but their ability to score TDs in the red zone, I’m predicting a lot of TDs and taking the Over 48.5.