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|1:00pm||CIN -6.5||44.5||PIT +6.5|
Game Analysis & Picks
First NFL Sunday is finally here and we have nothing short of a great slate to kickstart the 2022-2023 season. Here we have Joe Brrr on his revenge tour going against potential coach of the year in my opinion, Mike Tomlin. A lot of bettors are going to fall into the hype trap that is Joe Burrow being a fan favorite but let’s take a quick look into some of the facts before we put the mortgage payment on the line week 1.
Since the year 2000, Super Bowl losers are 4-18 against the spread. Bengals are opening up with a meaty -6.5 developing over the week from the line opening at -6. Since 2014, division underdogs are 29-9-1 against the spread week 1 and Mike Tomlin is 45-23-2 as an underdog.
Joe Burrow missed the start of training camp with an appendectomy and lost roughly 20 lbs. Tee Higgins said he looks all the way back to full strength…but why wouldn’t he say that? After all it’s his starting QB that the nation gets behind, he’d never say anything negative as it could jeopardize chemistry and throw the Bengals PR team into the trenches. I don’t think this game is going to be a shootout either. Weather in Pittsburg isn’t going to be great and we won’t see a game where Burrow throws for 4 TD’s. My consensus is we may see it get close to the line of 44.5 but I don’t think the total can break that over threshold.