MLB Best Bets & Parlay of the Day: Monday, 9/5

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    Time (EST)GameStartersPick
    4:30pmToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles (Game 2)Berrios (TOR)
    Baumann (BAL)
    BAL ML (+115)
    Runs Over 8.5 (-107)
    7:10pmTexas Rangers @ Houston AstrosPerez (TEX)
    Brown (HOU)

    HOU F5 3-way (-106)
    4:10pmBoston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay RaysWacha (BOS)
    Patino (TBR)
    TB ML (-113)
    4:15pmWashington Nationals @ St. Louis CardinalsSanchez (WSH)
    Flaherty (STL)
    STL -1.5 (-120)
    6:40pmArizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego PadresNelson (ARI)
    Snell (SD)
    SD -1.5 (-107)
    8:10pmCleveland Guardians @ Kansas City RoyalsMcKenzie (CLE)
    Singer (KC)
    CLE F5 3-way (+116)

    Toronto Blue Jays (Berrios) @ Baltimore Orioles (Baumann)
    BAL ML (+115) / Runs Over 8.5 (-107)-
    Today is the first day of a big 3 day 4 game series that will go a long way to determine the third AL Wild Card spot. Toronto is currently in the third spot one game behind Tampa and the Orioles are on the outside looking in and 2.5 games behind Toronto. Tampa also starts a divisional series against Boston today so the AL Wild Card is in flux to say the least. The Orioles have been playing well lately going 7-3 over their last 10 and game 2 starter Jose Berrios has not pitched well of late. He is coming off a 6.92 ERA for August and 5.32 ERA for the year. His 1.73 HR/9 is the absolute worst among qualified starting pitchers so that isn’t ideal. I like the young Orioles squad in the upset today and expecting Berrios to continue to struggle so I am going with O’s ML +115 and based on the overall pitching matchup expecting the over to hit at 8.5 -107.

    Texas Rangers (Perez) @ Houston Astros (Brown)
    HOU F5 3-way (-106)-
    Rangers starter Martin Perez has put together a very good year so far compiling a 10-5 record and 2.89 over 159 innings this year. What sticks out to me though is that he pitched against the Astros last week and they had 9 hits and 5 earned runs and Perez was nibbling all night and had 4 walks as well. Also, as longtime divisional rivals he has built up a somewhat meaningful sample size of performance against this current group of Astros hitters. I usually don’t use this stat because there aren’t enough PA’s but over Perez facing this current group of Astros hitters 228 times, they have a collective BA of .317 which is pretty good. The big variable here is Astros starter Hunter Brown though. He has put up impressive numbers in AAA and makes his MLB debut today. He was expected to be called up after Sept 1 but in a relief role but Verlander’s recent trip to the IL is probably why he is getting a chance to start today. The Astros are heavy favorites today but the fact they have a rookie making his debut today is the only reason why we can get -106 to bet on the Astros today for the F5 so that Is what I’m going with.

    MLB Parlay of the Day (+665)

    Time (EST)GamePick
    4:15pmWashington Nationals @ St. Louis CardinalsSTL -1.5 (-120)
    4:30pmToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles (Game 2)BAL ML (+107)
    7:10pmTexas Rangers @ Houston AstrosHOU F5 3-way (-106)

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