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In what is a bit of a strange week for us as a betting community, the PGA Tour returns to East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, GA for the 2022 Tour Championship. Due to handicapped scoring to start the week, our best bets & coverage at East Lake will be significantly less than our average week. Scottie Scheffler leads in FedEx Cup Points and will begin the event at 10-under par. In 2nd, defending champion Patrick Cantlay will begin 8-under par. Xander Schauffele takes the nod at 3rd (due to the WD from Will Zalatoris) at 6-under par.
Outright Winners
Patrick Cantlay (+380)
– Starting two strokes behind Scottie Scheffler, Cantlay has the 2nd best outright on the board this week at +380. Coming off his title defense of the BMW Championship last week, this is really starting to feel like deja vu. Arguably the hottest golfer in the world right now, I feel confident in taking Cantlay to win this week.
Jon Rahm (+1400)
– We barely missed out on our Top 5 bet for Rahm last week as he was a day late and a dollar short after a slow start on Thursday. Over the weekend, however, we saw the former World No. 1 return to form and make a run from the bottom of the leader board to a Sunday threat. Rahm will start 7 strokes back of Scottie, but he’s playing the best golf he has in a while. Best outright value on the board this week.
Finishing Positions
Top 5
Cam Smith (+210)
– In what very well could be a “going away” party for Cam Smith, this might be the last time we see him play against the best players in the world outside of one of golf’s 4 majors. Well rested after taking last week off, Smith should have no problem climbing into the Top 5 on his farewell tour.
Top 10
Viktor Hovland (+210)
– A lot of ups and downs last week in Greensboro, but Hovland showed flashes of getting back to his game. No pressure for a lot of these guys this week, and Hovland is one of them. If he can eliminate the one “bad round” from his 4 day stretch, Top 10 should be no issue.
Sahith Theegala (+600)
– Speaking of no pressure, take a look at Sahith Theegala. On the bubble to make the Tour Championship and hit some ballsy shots down the stretch to secure his spot in the Top 30 during his rookie season. All pressure is off now, and Theegala should open some eyes this week yet again.
Tournament Matchups
Tony Finau (+126) vs Rory McIlroy
Finau (+126) – I think this match-up is mispriced, and I’m not sure why. Finau is on an absolute roll, winning two events in recent weeks. Rory, while I appreciate him so much for it, has had is hands in a lot of business aspects of golf. I like the plus money on Finau.
Jordan Spieth (-136) vs Max Homa
Spieth (-136) – Spieth has actually looked really good the last few weeks. He has done what Jordan Spieth does, which is play really good golf every day for 16 or 17 holes. If Spieth can eliminate mistakes, this will be a blowout winner.
