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Following a historic and memorable 150th Open Championship last week, the PGA Tour is back in action at TPC Twin Cities for the 2022 3M Open. As the regular season winds down, FedEx Cup Points become more important than ever. The 3M Open is one of 3 regular season events left for the 2022 season. Defending last year’s title, Cameron Champ returns to the field, as well as 2020 winner Michael Thompson. Top contenders by listed odds are Tony Finau (+1300), Hideki Matsuyama (+1400), Sungjae Im (+1600), Adam Hadwin (+2000) and Sahith Theegala (+2000).
Outright Winners
Favorite
Joohyung Kim (+2900)
– 29-1 isn’t usually the odds of our “favorite” outright winner of the week. But in terms of value, he’s the first guy that pops up on the list. Finau & Hideki haven’t played their best golf recently, I’ll take a bullet before I take Adam Hadwin outright, and Tringale? No thanks. The only other logical argument atop the odds list would be Theegala. And I just refuse to believe his first career win comes at the 3M Open. That leaves us with the 20 year old kid who looked like the real deal on Thursday at St. Andrews… with a current OWGR of 40, look for Kim to make his first statement on the PGA Tour this week.
Next Up
Rickie Fowler (+4800)
– Always feels like there is some time for Fowler to recoup, but that clock is certainly running thin. It almost feels as there is one more chance for Rickie, who is right on the border of missing the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the 2nd straight year. If he can’t figure it out on this final stretch of the season, he is almost a lock to resign from the PGA Tour and play in the LIV Golf Invitational. Years & years of waiting on the revival of Rickie Fowler… does that revival begin this week in Minnesota?
Value Picks
Beau Hossler (+8000)
– I’m no genius, but getting one of the best putters on tour at 80-1 in a deflated field like this has to be the definition of “value”. The 27 year old is 6th on tour this season in strokes gained with the putter. With two top 5 finishes this season, Hossler is looking to get over the hump to get his first career victory. Don’t count him out this week.
Long Shots
Brandon Matthews (+11000)
– Half a unit on the Korn Ferry star will be worth it simply to watch this kid drive the golf ball. With an average driving distance of 320 yards, there is no doubt Matthews hit’s the ball a country mile. 110-1, so I don’t have an equation for this one.
Finishing Positions
Top 5
Joohyung Kim (+550)
– Clearly my favorite play this week. Top 5 is a security blanket for the outright pick, but let’s just cash both.
Chris Gotterup (+750)
– Coming off a T4 finish at John Deere Classic, which had a similar field, I love the value for the rookie here. Still lacking experience with only 16 rounds on the PGA Tour this year, but he’s shown that won’t hold him back from finishing atop the leaderboard.
Dylan Frittelli (+1100)
– The time is coming for Frittelli, as he’s been on the bet slip a few times in the last several weeks. Was on his way to cashing our Top 20 ticket last week at the open before struggling on the back 9 on Sunday. Deflated field is certainly his chance to shine here. Priced way too low at 11-1.
Top 10
JT Poston (+410)
– I certainly owe JT some bets after he helped cash our 42-1 outright ticket a few weeks ago at the John Deere Classic. Combine that with a T2 finish at Travelers and a T3 finish at RBC Heritage early on this season, and the Postman has formulated somewhat of a breakout 2022 campaign. Another guy who is deadly with the flatstick. If the putter is hot, Top 10 should be an easy cash.
Sahith Theegala (+270)
– Another week, another Sahith ticket. As mentioned earlier, I refuse to believe the 3M Open is his first career win. Just wouldn’t be very “Sahith-like”. However, he’s playing better golf at a higher level than anybody this field. He looked like he was ready to make a push for a Top 10 finish at St. Andrews last week before a mediocre weekend. Definitely one of our safe plays this week, but solid value here for a Top 10 finish.
Tom Hoge (+550)
– 3 Top 5’s this season in deflated fields including his victory at Pebble Beach early on this season, Hoge has showed like other guys on this list that he can make some noise in weaker fields. Sneaking in to the Top 10 should be a very do-able task for Hoge.
