MLB Best Bets & Parlay of the Day: Sunday, 7/3

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    Time (EST)GameStartersPick
    1:35pmMilwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh PiratesWoodruff (MIL)
    Quintana (PIT)
    MIL -1.5 (-121)
    1:40pmNew York Yankees @ Cleveland IndiansMontgomery (NYY)
    McKenzie (CLE)
    NYY -1.5 (+102)
    2:10pmLos Angeles Angels @ Houston AstrosSuarez (LAA)
    Valdez (HOU)
    HOU -1.5 (-112)
    3:10pmArizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado RockiesGallen (ARI)
    Gibson (PHI)
    Runs Over 11.5 (105)
    4:10pmSan Diego Padres @ Los Angeles DodgersGore (SD)
    Kershaw (LAD)
    Runs Over 8 (-106)
    4:10pmOakland Athletics @ Seattle MarinersMontas (OAK)
    Ray (SEA)
    Runs Over 7 (+110)

    Milwaukee Brewers (Woodruff) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Quintana)
    MIL -1.5 (-121) – Brandon Woodruff is working to turn around his early struggles this season where he pitched to a 5.30 ERA in April. He has been great in his last 4 starts (2.25 ERA) and some of his peripherals (3.33 FIP) would suggest his overall ERA for the season (4.44) is a bit inflated and unlucky. Since May 1st, the Brewers have the 4th best offense in the NL (110 wRC+) while the Pirates have the 2nd worst (89 wRC+) The Brewers also have the 3rd best bullpen in the NL (3.54 ERA) and the Pirates are 4th worst in all of MLB (4.59 ERA). I like the relative value of MIL -1.5 (-121) today for a game where the Brewers are heavily favored.

    New York Yankees (Montgomery) @ Cleveland Guardians (McKenzie)
    NYY -1.5 (+102) – The Yankees continue to take the league by storm with a .734 winning percentage that nobody else is really close to. Their combination of dominant starting pitching and offense has left opposing clubs with few answers over the course of a series. Jordan Montgomery has seen a slight decrease in his K/9 this year but is having the best season of his career in terms of ERA and FIP and preventing runs overall by improving his BB/9 from last year but about 1.5/9. Triston McKenzie has had a rough June (6.44 ERA) with starts where he has surrendered 5, 6 and 7 earned runs. The Yankees are without Judge today and the Guardians are choosing resting Jose Ramirez. Today in a game where the Yankees are favored, I’m going with the value of NYY -1.5 (+102)

    Las Angeles Angels (Suarez) @ Houston Astros (Valdez)
    HOU -1.5 (-112) – The Angels had some success against Framber Valdez in a start back in April but I am discounting that because it was April and Framber had 4 walks. He has now pitched 12 starts since then without giving up 4 walks or more. He currently has a 2.65 ERA over 95 innings largely due to the fact he leads all of baseball with a 67% ground ball rate. Angels rookie Jose Suarez has shown some promise this year including against the Astros back in April. The Astros are very diligent with their scouting so it will be interesting to see if they have a different approach against Suarez this time around. Both teams have good offenses but the Astros are currently hot winning 8 of their last 10, have the best bullpen in baseball (2.67 ERA) and the experience edge today with starting pitching so I am going with HOU -1.5 (-112).

    MLB Parlay of the Day (+532)

    Time (EST)GamePick
    1:35pmMilwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh PiratesMIL -1.5 (-121)
    1:40pmNew York Yankees @ Cleveland IndiansNYY -1.5 (+102)
    2:10pmLos Angeles Angels @ Houston AstrosHOU -1.5 (-112)

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