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The NFL is almost back! After a frenzied start to Free Agency, we are now just a week away from the NFL Draft. Round 1 kicks off live from Las Vegas on Thursday, April 28th at 8PM EST with the Jaguars on the clock. Let’s dive in to some pre-draft value picks to lock in as the draft approaches.
NFL Draft Pick Prop Value Predictions
| Pick | Team | Position | Player | College | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Overall | JAX | DL | Travon Walker | Georgia | +200 |
| 2nd Overall | DET | EDGE | Aidan Huchinson | Michigan | +170 |
| 3rd Overall | HOU | OT | Ickey Ekwonu | NC State | +180 |
| 4th Overall | NYJ | CB | Sauce Gardner | Cincinnati | +350 |
| 5th Overall | NYG | EDGE | Kayvon Thibodeaux | Oregon | +350 |
| OTHER VALUES | |||||
| Top 5 Pick | N/A | QB | Malik Willis | Liberty | +300 |
| Top 5 Pick | N/A | OT | Evan Neal | Alabama | -125 |
| Top 10 Pick | N/A | WR | Garrett Wilson | Ohio State | -115 |
| Top 10 Pick | N/A | CB | Derek Stingley Jr. | LSU | -125 |
NFL Draft Pick Prop Value Predictions:
Pick #1 (Jaguars) – Jacksonville is widely projected to select someone to bolster their defensive line with the top pick. Michigan EDGE Aidan Huchinson is the heavy favorite at -200, but the Jaguars have held their cards close and there has been traction around Georgia DL Travon Walker also being considered. At +200, Walker could be a nice value to lock in as the 1st overall pick.
Pick #2 (Lions) – The Lions are also projected to be addressing the defensive side of the ball in Round 1, and I’m expecting them to select whoever falls to them between Huchinson and Walker. If Walker goes 1st overall, it’s almost a complete lock that Huchinson goes to the Lions. But if Huchinson goes #1, I think much more is in play for Detroit all the way down to QB, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Malik Willis come off the board given all the raw talent he displayed at his Pro Day.
Pick #3 (Texans) – Houston seems content to enter the season with 2021 3rd-rounder Davis Mills under center, and should look to protect the Stanford alum with an infusion of talent on the offensive line. I think this pick comes down to the best tackle available in the draft, which is likely an argument between NC State’s Ickey Ekwonu and Alabama’s Evan Neal. Both players would bring a massive boost to Houston’s offense, and I see real value in Ekwonu being taken 3rd at +180.
Pick #4 (Jets) – Sauce Gardner looks to be the premier cant-miss CB in this draft and I’d be surprised to see him fall out of the Top 5. With all the offensive threats that are being stockpiled in the AFC East, the Jets would be smart to draft a shutdown corner here. But then again they are the Jets, so a shiny object like a WR could also be in play for them. Either way I’d hope they’d go with the no-brainer and take Sauce, and you’d get +350 odds to predict that.
Pick #5 (Giants) – The big personality of Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux has apparently rubbed some evaluators the wrong way, but he has been discussed in some circles as the top overall talent in this draft class. I really think Thibodeaux could be in play for the Lions at #2, and doubt he’d fall past the Giants if he makes it this far. The odds are solid for him to go 5th overall at +350, and he flaunts the strength and athleticism to be a difference-maker in the NFL.
Top 5 Pick Values:
Malik Willis (+300) – The Auburn-transfer dazzled in his pre-draft throwing display at Liberty, while also showcasing an infectious personality that was palpable to all those around him. All it takes is for one team to be enthralled with his arm strength, dual-threat ability and leadership intangibles, and he could come off the board in the Top 5. For me, Willis has more upside than any QB in this draft class and I can see some franchise banging the table to trade up for him.
Evan Neal (-125) – The 6’7″ 350 pound behemoth from Alabama is favored to be the top tackle taken in the draft, which I would expect to happen in the Top 5. There are just not many human beings built like Neal, and as the saying goes, you can’t teach size. I expect Neal to anchor an offensive line in the NFL for years to come, and health willing, could blossom into a perennial Pro-Bowler.
Top 10 Pick Values:
Garrett Wilson (-115) – Wilson is my favorite WR in this year’s deep draft class at the position. Both he and former Buckeye teammate Chris Olave are projected to go in the first round, but Wilson looks to be the most NFL-ready in this class. In Free Agency, teams have shown the willingness to invest big at the position, most recently by the Dolphins and Raiders dealing multiple picks to land Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. Wilson has the skill-set to be locked into the Top 10, and I could see a team trading up to snag him.
Derek Stingley Jr. (-125) – The buzz around Stingley Jr. is continuing to grow as we approach the draft and it wouldn’t completely shock me to see him leapfrog Sauce Gardner as the top CB taken. Drawing comparisons to All-Pro Stephon Gilmore, the sky is the limit for the LSU product. This is another player I would firmly project in the Top 10.
NFL Draft Prop Picks By Position (First Selected)
| Position | Player | College | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Malik Willis | Liberty | -130 |
| RB | Breece Hall | Iowa State | -225 |
| WR | Garrett Wilson | Ohio State | +155 |
| OT | Ickey Ekwonu | NC State | -150 |
| CB | Derek Stingley Jr. | LSU | +300 |
| LB | Nakobe Dean | Georgia | +300 |
NFL Draft Prop Picks By Position (First Selected)
I’ve mentioned Willis, Wilson, Ekwonu and Stingley Jr. above, so let’s take a look at potential values at RB and LB.
Breece Hall – The only competition for Hall to not be the top RB selected seems to be with former Spartan Kenneth Walker III, who has showcased some impressive hands on film. But I believe Hall is the most well-rounded RB prospect in this class, and few can compare to his college production. In 2020, Hall and Najee Harris were the only college RBs to score 20+ TDs, and Hall also lead Division 1 in rushing yards. Despite the devaluing of the position, I expect him to be off the board in the mid-to-late first round.
Nakobe Dean – Utah’s Devin Lloyd is a heavy favorite to be the first LB selected at -450, but I think Dean has the higher NFL-upside based on his strong work ethic and high football IQ. Dean has received glowing feedback from teams in his pre-draft visits for his cerebral ability to process information, and he seems to possess all the intangibles to lead a defense. Of all the elite prospects coming out of the University of Georgia in this draft class, Dean could easily become the best pro of the bunch.
More NFL Draft Player Prop Picks (Over/Under Predictions)
| Line | Position | Player | College | Pick (Odds) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pick 5.5 | EDGE | Kayvon Thibodeaux | Oregon | Under (+100) |
| Pick 7.5 | OT | Charles Cross | Mississippi State | Over (-150) |
| Pick 8.5 | S | Kyle Hamilton | Notre Dame | Over (-150) |
| Pick 9.5 | EDGE | Jermaine Johnson | Florida State | Over (+110) |
| Pick 10.5 | CB | Derek Stingley Jr. | LSU | Under (-125) |
| Pick 10.5 | WR | Garrett Wilson | Ohio State | Under (-115) |
| Pick 10.5 | WR | Drake London | USC | Under (+140) |
